Tuesday, February 27, 2024

NBA Betting Systems: Trending Basketball Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

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The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.

One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.


SYSTEM: Road favorites ATS following a loss

It’s been a while since I highlighted this system, but it’s been solid to this point in 2023-24 if you’ve stuck with it throughout the 113 games it’s been in play. Still, while 60-51-2 is a good hit rate at over 53%, the ones who’ve really cashed in on this play waited a little while to attack this.

Over the last 30 days, this system is 21-12 (63.64%). Even if you just waited until the last week of games, you’ve been making out well. In the last seven days, road favorites after a loss are 7-3 against the spread.

Both the Nuggets and Knicks have this system in play on Monday.

Denver has the tough task of battling the Bucks in Milwaukee as just one-point favs. While Nikola Jokic and company are just 7-13-1 ATS as road favorites, this is essentially a moneyline play. When just looking at straight-up record, the Nuggets are 13-8 as road favorites. But, Milwaukee isn’t your average home underdog. The Bucks are 22-6 straight-up at home. This game feels like a coin toss, which the spread very much indicates.

The game in Houston feels a bit different on the surface, but the Rockets are tough at home, too. They’re 9-4 ATS as home dogs and 8-5 straight-up. However, this is only the second time they’ve been in this setting without Fred VanVleet. That’ll make life a lot tougher vs, the Knicks, who are 9-3 ATS as road favorites. On top of that, when coming off a loss and playing as a road favorite, New York is 3-1.

NOTE: No table laying out potential plays for this system throughout the week because this play is dependent on the outcome of a road favorite’s previous game.

SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 12

NYK -4


SYSTEM: Under on total when road favorite did not play the previous day

Season-long, this play has essentially a coin toss at 126-127-4 to the under. Also, over the past seven days, this play has only gone 9-11 — essentially maintaining the season-long rate.

However, when you look at this system’s performance over the last 30 days, it’s 49-31.

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Five games fit this system on Monday:

  • IND @ CHA
  • DEN @ MIL
  • NOP @ MEM
  • NYK @ HOU
  • GSW @ UTA

Here’s how those favorites perform to the under when playing as a rested road favorite:

  • IND 3-2
  • DEN 12-6
  • NOP 3-6
  • NYK 8-4
  • GSW 5-2

Denver is an appealing option, but the Bucks 10-18 to the under at home. Now, they are 5-1 to the under as dogs, but one time they played as home dogs, the over hit.

The Warriors are an interesting option, even with Utah being a coin flip against the total when playing as road dogs. But in the end, I find myself circling the same game I already have action on for Monday.

On top of the Knicks being strong to the under in this setting, the Rockets are 8-5 to the under as home dogs.

POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Under on total when road favorite did not play the previous day

2/12 2/13 2/14 2/15
2/12 2/13 2/14 2/15
IND @ CHA BOS @ BKN ATL @ CHA MIL @ MEM
DEN @ MIL OKC @ ORL NYK @ ORL MIN @ POR
NOP @ MIL MIA @ MIL CHI @ CLE
NYK @ HOU SAC @ PHX IND @ TOR
GSW @ UTA DET @ LAL WAS @ NOP
HOU @ MEM
SA @ DAL
LAC @ GSW

SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 12

NYK-HOU under 221.5


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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.

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