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76ers vs Mavericks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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New-look Dallas continues to sputter while Philadelphia is coming off a big win thanks to James Harden regaining his elite form. Find out why the road team has the edge tonight in our 76ers vs. Mavericks betting picks.

Last Updated:
Mar 2, 2023 12:31 PM ET

Read Time: 4 min

The Philadelphia 76ers are really starting to look the part of a true contender in the Eastern Conference and a lot of that has to do with James Harden finding his elite level of play.

The Sixers have won six of their last eight games and will look to keep rolling when they visit the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night. 

While things are looking up for Philly, that can’t be said for Dallas, as the combo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving has been a failure to this point.

I break down this matchup and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions 76ers vs. Mavericks on March 2. 

76ers vs Mavericks best odds

76ers vs Mavericks picks and predictions

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off an impressive 119-96 road victory against Miami as 3.5-point underdogs, despite missing Joel Embiid to injury (foot). 

James Harden continued his solid play in Embiid’s absence, going for 23 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Over the last eight games where the Sixers are 6-2, Harden is averaging 23.9 points while shooting 41.3% from 3-point range, to go along with 9 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.

Meanwhile, things are not going well for the Dallas Mavericks, as the Luka Doncic/Kyrie Irving experiment has been a complete disaster. Dallas is 1-5 straight up in its last six games, with its lone win coming against the lowly Spurs.

The fact that the Mavericks are laying 4-point at home in this matchup tells me sportsbooks believe Embiid won’t play in this game as well.

That means I’m riding with Harden in this matchup. He’s absolutely cooking right now and should have no problem putting up points against a Mavericks team that is giving up the most points per game in the NBA to opposing guards following the trade deadline. 

Harden has seen his scoring tick up lately, and with potentially no Embiid on the court tonight, I like him to go Over his points and rebounding total of 27.5. 

My best bet: James Harden Over 27.5 points + rebounds (-115)

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76ers vs Mavericks spread analysis

As noted, the Mavericks are 4-point chalk for this matchup, and nothing is more telling about Embiid’s availability than that number.

Despite Dallas being favored, the Mavs are just 1-5 straight up in their last six games. That number looks even worse when you realize they were favorites in four of those contests. 

The biggest issue has been the Mavs’ lack of defense following the trade for Kyrie. Dallas is surrendering 121 points and ranks 26th in defensive rating over that stretch. It’s hard to cover spreads when you can’t stop anyone from scoring.

I have no confidence laying points with the Mavs right now, and the Sixers have gelled lately and just got a big win over the Heat without Embiid. Take the points with Philly or stay away.

76ers vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup hit the board at 229 and has been bet down slightly to 228.5. 

The Sixers are coming off a game in which they put up 119 points against Miami without the presence of Embiid. If their superstar center appears on the floor tonight, watch out.

And while the Mavs are struggling, the offense hasn’t been the problem. With Luka and Kyrie both in the lineup, the Mavericks rank fifth in offensive rating and are putting up 121.7 ppg. The 76ers are a Top-10 team defensively, but they are also playing their second game in as many nights.

I would lean toward the Over here.

76ers vs Mavericks betting trend to know

Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when playing the second half of a back-to-back, while Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Mavericks.

76ers vs Mavericks game info

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date: Thursday, March 2, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET

76ers vs Mavericks key injuries

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